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Welcome
to the red24
global report - a regular digest of the latest security-related news,
travel safety issues, and new additions to our red24 website. This report
aims to keep red24 members up to date and well informed of the stability
of any country they may be travelling to or living in.
Two weeks after
deadly tsunami waves hit the coastlines of South and Southeast Asia following an earthquake on 26
December, emergency relief efforts are gradually moving away from the
immediate needs of victims to reconstruction and rehabilitation. The death
toll is expected to rise to 160,000 and as many as five million peoples
are believed to be displaced. The World Health Organisation (WHO)
announced on 11 January that there are no signs of impending outbreaks of
serious disease in tsunami-hit areas but that the next month will be an
important period. Ethnic tensions are rising again in Sri Lanka and Aceh, Indonesia, the two worst hit
areas, and may hamper aid efforts but officials are hoping electricity can
be restored and a basic cleanup completed in the next two weeks; some
schools and shops have re-opened.
Travellers to
regions affected by the tsunami should research their destination
thoroughly before visiting as while some areas have been completely
devastated, others are untouched and can be visited. Many of the affected
regions depend heavily on the tourist industry and travellers should
consider visiting another part of the country if their original
destination has been affected. Malaysia has reported no long-term affects
on its tourism industry and is already inviting people back, while those
areas in Sri Lanka and
Thailand hit the hardest may
only be ready to receive tourists in a few months. View a separate
red24
page red24.info/members/indepth/asiaquake.php">here for updates on the latest
developments in all affected areas.
In other
announcements, the terror risk rating for red24.info/members/intelligence/indonesia.php">Indonesia has been reduced to
red, or a rating of 4. This means that the country has been removed from
the red24 high-risk category. However, the threat of terrorism remains
high and foreign governments continually receive reports of planned
attacks on Westerners and Western interests.
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High
risk countries |
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red24 suggests that all
non-essential travel to any of the countries in this box be
avoided or postponed. These countries currently show either
extreme levels of violent crime and/or conflict, imminent
terrorist attacks or a complete breakdown of political
systems.
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Areas
of concern
Africa: The
past month has seen a significant increase in social and political violence
throughout the east African countries of Somalia, red24.info/members/intelligence/kenya.php">Kenya and Sudan as
a result of ethnic rivalry, political distrust and societal cynicism towards
local governing bodies.
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red24.info/members/intelligence/somalia.php">Somalia: There are renewed inter-clan
clashes near the Ethiopian and Somali border town of Mandera in the north
east. Attacks are ongoing as one group takes revenge for earlier attacks
from another group and so on. The above hostilities combined with the
recent Tsunami caused extensive damage to lives and the country’s
infrastructure, contributing further to the instability in the region.
The situation in Somalia is likely to remain uncertain
according to International Crisis Group (ICG). The outcome of Somalia's present peace process
is unpredictable.
·
red24.info/members/intelligence/sudan.php">Sudan: Relentless fighting in the
Darfur region continues to undermine
the efficacy of cease-fire negotiations, causing greater internal confusion
and despondency. The recent signing of a cease-fire agreement for the
civil war raging with rebels in the south has brought hope to the region
but scepticism, an unstable political environment and continuing atrocities
in the Darfur region appear to overwhelm
the credibility of the peace efforts. Travel to Sudan is advised against as even
aid groups experience violent acts.
Asia: Tensions are flaring in a number
of the countries affected by the tsunami. Fresh tensions between government
and rebels in the two countries worst hit by the tsunami disaster threaten
to undermine aid efforts. In red24.info/members/intelligence/srilanka.php">Sri Lanka, the red24.info/members/indepth/tamiltigers.php">Tamil Tigers have warned of serious
consequences if government soldiers are not withdrawn from welfare camps.
In red24.info/members/intelligence/indonesia.php">Indonesia, the military has stepped
up patrols for separatist rebels in tsunami-stricken northern Sumatra
Island after isolated
skirmishes in recent days raised fears the conflict could hamper the relief
effort. The Free Aceh Movement, known by the acronym GAM, declared a unilateral
cease-fire and the military said it would not target suspected rebels
during the emergency. However, the Indonesian government has told relief
aid agencies working in the province of Aceh
that it cannot guarantee their safety outside major towns.
·
red24.info/members/intelligence/australia.php">Australia: High temperatures topping
44°C have caused bushfires across South Australia, killing at least nine
people with seven reported missing. A number of properties in Eyre Peninsula
have been destroyed and highways on Adelaide’s southern
and southeastern outskirts were closed temporarily. Emergency services
have said conditions have made the fires almost uncontrollable and there
are fears the death toll could climb. Fire danger season is generally
from November through April, in southern states and in the winter months
in the north states. Various restrictions are in place during this time
and visitors are advised to be aware of the risks. Further up-to-date
information can be found at the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology.
Americas: red24.info/members/intelligence/usa.php">United States: Severe storms from
6 – 11 January turned southern California
into a flood zone, disrupting transport links and causing a massive mudslide
to crash into the village of La Conchita.
Three people were killed in the mudslides and 12 are missing. Rescue teams
have been unable to search for any survivors over concerns of more rain.
See our red24.info/members/securityadvice/floods.php">flood survival security page.
·
red24.info/members/intelligence/bolivia.php">Bolivia: Continued threats of indefinite
protests against fuel price hikes and government’s failure to meet
price freeze demands threaten to create a new wave of instability in Bolivia. Protests through Santa
Cruz and La Paz, as well as
road blockages are increasing. The potential for violence cannot be dismissed
as protesters seek more violent means to address their demands. Interim
President Carlos Mesa threatened to resign if scenes of street violence
occur similar to those of October 2003 where 70 people were killed.
Indian sub-continent: red24.info/members/intelligence/pakistan.php">Pakistan: Pakistan
has seen a significant resurgence of isolated sectarian violence in the
last month with several incidents creating cause for future concern. Many
red24.info/members/indepth/alqaeda.php">al-Qaeda members and their Taliban
supporters have fled to Pakistan to escape a crackdown by the US-led
forces in neighbouring Afghanistan. On 11 January the
FCO released a report advising against all but essential travel to northern
and western Balochistan, western North West Frontier Province (NWFP),
the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas and Agencies (FATA), and border
areas, except for official crossing points. Places of worship should also
be avoided at this time.
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red24.info/members/intelligence/nepal.php">Nepal: Unrest continues as some
150 Maoist guerrillas died in fierce fighting with security forces in
Nepal's remote southwest region.
The attack is one of the bloodiest in months. The confrontation occurred
after a group of more than 500 rebels attacked the army post at Masuria.
No deaths were reported among the army forces. Violence has escalated
in the poverty-racked kingdom ahead of a January 13 deadline set by Prime
Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba for the Maoists to resume peace talks. The
insurgency has claimed more than 11,000 lives and added to the woes of
Nepal's
aid- and tourism-reliant economy.
Europe: Inclement
weather which swept across most of northern Europe cut a swathe of destruction, causing fatalities,
power shortages, flooding and widespread damage. Sweden,
Scandinavia, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and the red24.info/members/intelligence/uk.php">United Kingdom were most severely
affected and airports, railways, bridges, ferries and homes were affected.
A family of five were killed when their vehicle was swept from an exposed
bridge in the Western isles of Scotland. Meteorologists claimed
the storms were the worst in 40 years and are expected to continue through
the week; it is advisable to avoid low lying areas and to monitor local
weather reports.
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red24.info/members/intelligence/serbiaandmontenegro.php">Serbia and Montenegro: Tension
over the shooting of an ethnic Albanian teenager in Serbia’s
volatile southern region on 7 January could threaten the fragile stability
of the country as a whole. The youth was attempting an illegal crossing
from Macedonia into
Serbia's Presevo valley when,
following repeated orders to halt, he was shot by a border guard. Serbia
and Montenegro recently stepped up
its military presence in the region which is UN-administered. Travellers
are urged to avoid any mass meetings owing to the possibility of violence
occurring.
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red24.info/members/intelligence/ukraine.php">Ukraine: After months of uncertainty,
the political crisis in the Ukraine has stabilised and the Ukraine’s electoral commission
formally declared on 10 January that Viktor Yushchenko won the presidential
elections. Although outgoing President Leonid Kuchma accepted the resignation
of opposition candidate Viktor Yanukovych as prime minister on 5 January,
an official statement had not been made. Yushchenko’s inauguration
is expected to take place as early as 15 or 16 January. Although stability
seems to have returned to the region, travellers to main urban centres
are warned of the possibility of civil disturbances between supporters
of the victorious Yushchenko and the defeated Yanukovych.
Middle East: Mahmoud Abbas claimed victory in
the Palestinian presidential elections taking about two-thirds of the
vote. Upon recognition of his victory Abbas called on Palestinian militant
groups to end their insurgency against Israel.
Hamas has agreed to work with Abbas, although they did say he would not
succeed in his presidential efforts with Israel,
nor do they believe he has the authority to stop the attacks. However,
Israeli foreign ministry spokesman, Yigal Palmor, said that Israel regarded Abbas as someone
to negotiate with. Israeli President Sharon has already extended his congratulations
and seems willing to talk after shunning the late Yasser Arafat.
Upcoming / current events
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red24.info/members/intelligence/iraq.php">Iraq: Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad
Allawi admitted that rampant violence will prevent voting in parts of
Iraq in the upcoming elections
on 30 January. Iraq remains on our high-risk
country list and all non-essential travel to the country should be avoided.
The interim government announced plans to set aside $2.2bn of 2005's budget
to strengthen security forces. Some 8,500 of 85,000 residents who returned
to Falluja after a US assault
last year remain in their homes.
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red24.info/members/indepth/hajj.php">Hajj: The annual pilgrimage of
the Hajj will take place from 18 - 24 January 2005. Approximately two
million Muslim pilgrims will journey to the holy cities of Mecca and Medina in
red24.info/members/intelligence/saudiarabia.php">Saudi Arabia. Due to the vast numbers,
the biggest concern and risk is the danger of stampedes and fire, which
have killed hundreds of people in previous years. There are also concerns
of terrorism.
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Chinese New Year: Chinese New Year
or Spring Festival is the biggest holiday in red24.info/members/intelligence/china.php">Chinese culture. In 2005, the holiday
will start on 9 February. While traditionally a 15 day festival, usually
only the first three days are designated as public holidays, although
some people may take up to a week off. Many Chinese travel home to be
with family for the New Year celebration and business trips should be
avoided during this time as it is difficult to meet people, get around
and find accommodation.
Did you know?
·
According to Flight International, the world’s airlines had their
safest ever year in 2004, with five crashes and a death toll of 466 people.
This compares with 702 deaths in 2003; last year’s figure was the
lowest since 1984, when there were far fewer aircraft operating. The figures
do not include crashes attributed to terrorism, including two Russian
aircraft that were reportedly brought down by Chechen extremists in August.
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